Dangerous Surfs to Threaten Beachgoers in Antigua and Barbuda Easter Monday

17 04 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Those heading to the beaches in Antigua and Barbuda should be wary of the threat of strong rip currents Easter Monday through Wednesday.

Seas Forecast Apr 17, 2017

Beaches on the northern and eastern sides of the islands will be at greatest risk for stronger and more frequent rip currents through midweek, due to large swells. Seas are on the rise and will peak on Tuesday with a combination of wind waves and swells nearing 3.0 metres (10 ft) occasionally reaching 3.8 metres (13 ft).

A huge low pressure system near the centre of the North Atlantic is pushing large swells to the region. Meanwhile, the winds in the area are on the increase, which will cause a rise in the wind waves.

Low pressure systems

Rip currents are not new to our shores. They are always present in situations like this and are characterised by water flowing away from the shore. The strength of the current is usually proportional the height of the swells.

Vacationers and residents should take precautions while at the beach. It would be prudent to seek out only beaches under the watch of lifeguards, if possible, and heed all warnings issued. The west facing beasches should be least affected.

Should you ever get caught in a rip current, never attempt to swim directly back to shore as you will be swimming against the current. Instead, swim parallel to the beach to escape the current’s grip before swimming ashore.

Small craft should use caution and heed all advisories, as seas will also be rough.

Similar sea conditions are forecast for most of the rest of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the eastern parts of the Bahamas, the Winward Islands and Barbados. The swells will also eventually reach Trinidad and Tobago and the Guyanas late Tuesday.

It is also likely to be a somewhat wet Easter Monday as the same low pressure system mentioned above is pulling a lot of moisture across the islands. The range of the possible rainfall total is wide – 0 to 12 mm (0 to 0.48 in).

The increasing wind will peak late Easter Monday at around 16 knots (18 mph) over open waters and 13 knots (15 mph) over land. Frequent higher gusts will take place.

Seas will return to near normal levels on Thursday.





The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Early Forecast

7 04 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Good news! The early forecasts just issued for the upcoming 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (AHS) indicate a below normal season is most likely. This is forecast to be most evident in the number of hurricanes that forms (see graphic below). It could be as quiet as the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Nevertheless, the usual complete preparations are still very much required.

Ensemble forecast

The ensemble (mean) forecast, based on predictions from Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Saunders and Lea of Tropical Storm Risk.com (TSR) and AccuWeather.com, is for 11 named storms, 4 becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes.

2017HurricaneSeason

A better indicator of the activity for the season is the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index which is a measurement of the strength and duration of each tropical cyclone. Summing together the ACE of each cyclone, provides a more complete picture of how active the season is likely to be outside of just the number of storms.

This year, the ensemble forecast calls for an ACE index of 71. If this forecast pans out, the 2016 season would be around 30% less active than normal.

It must be noted though that there is very low skill in forecasting the AHS (June to November) in April. However, this is the best available forecast for the season, from this vantage point, and can be used as a guide for what is possible. A more skilful forecast will be available around June 1.

El Nino

 The development of an El Nino is the main climate factor that is forecasts to cause the hurricane season to be quieter than normal. El Nino is virtually synonymous with inactive AHSs, as it causes unfavourable conditions for tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes). The main one being the creation of strong winds aloft that inhibits or rips tropical cyclones apart.

However, regardless of the above probabilities and forecasts, this is not a licence to do anything differently for this hurricane season. The same comprehensive preparations are required to deal successfully with any eventuality. It only takes one tropical cyclone to set you back for years. Recall – Gonzalo struck us in a quiet year – 2014.

New and improved products

As is the case annually, there are new and improved products that will be on show. The most significant of which will be the issuing of watches, warnings and advisories for potential tropical cyclones.  A potential tropical cyclone is being defined as a disturbance that has the potential to produce tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.

This new product is expected to be a game-changer as it will eliminate surprise storms and hurricanes and increase the lead time for preparations for rapidly developing disturbances approaching land. If such a product were in place for Gonzalo of 2014, Antigua would have likely fared much better.

Click here for other new and improved products.

2016 hurricane season summary

The 2016 AHS was active – the first active (above normal) season since 2012 and the most active since 2010, based on the ACE index. It produced 15 named storms. Of the 15, 7 became hurricanes and 4 reached major hurricane status – at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The strongest tropical cyclone for the season was Major Hurricane (MH) Matthew with peak winds of 160 mph and minimum pressure of 934 millibars.

Hurricane Matthew caused the most devastation. In total, up to 600 deaths have been attributed to the storm, including over 500 in Haiti, making it the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan in 2005.

The 2016 season is the first year since 2008 no tropical cyclone passed within 121 miles of Antigua. It was likely the least stressful AHS for the island in, at least, eight years.

Follow us and stay updated on the 2017 AHS via our social media platform, which includes twitter, facebook, wordpress, instagram, tumblr, and google+. Follow us also for all things weather and climate.





A Severely Dry February for Antigua

22 03 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

February 2017 was a severely dry month for Antigua. It is the fourth driest February on record, dating back to, at least, 1928. Only one other February has been drier since 1983 – that of 2013.

Top4DriestFebForAntigua

On average, such an extremely low rainfall only occurs once in around every 33 years for February. In other words, there is only a 3% chance of such little rainfall taking place for the month.

The island-average for the February was just 14.0 mm (0.55 in). This makes it the driest and first below normal rainfall month since October 2016.

One month of dryness does not say anything about the rainfall for the upcoming months. However, with the probability of an El Nino rising, this dryness may be a sign of unwelcome things to come.

Recall the El Nino reduces rainfall activity across our area, mainly during the wet season, while the opposite – La Nina has reverse effect. It is still early days as to whether El Nino will develop but not too early for us to start to put contingency plans in place.

On average, February is our second driest month on, with an island-average of 55.9 mm (2.20 in).

Based on rain gauge measurement and satellite estimates, Barbuda fared slightly better with a total in the range of 12.7 to 38.0 mm (0.5-1.5 in).

Thus far, March is on track for, at least, near normal rainfall.

Follow us for all you need to know about our rainfall and all things weather and climate. We can also be followed on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube.





Storm-Force Wind Gusts and Hazardous Seas Are Returning to the Area

7 03 2017

Storm-force wind gusts and hazardous seas are returning to the area. The weather will be generally good but the increased winds will cause the lower atmosphere to become somewhat unsettled, giving rise to occasional showers.

The Met Office has already issued a small craft warning and this is expected to continue in place through, at least, Friday. Given the expected conditions, small craft operators should not venture far from port, especially on the windward side of the islands. Beachgoers should avoid the waters of the north and east facing beaches.

The expected strong gusts will also make some outdoor activities very uncomfortable if not dangerous. At least, light objects should be secured, as minimal storm conditions are possible. Please be guided accordingly.

The wind speed will steadily rise to 28 to 44 km/h (17 to 28 mph) by late Tuesday and continue in that range until Thursday; thereafter, subsiding. Wind gusts as high as 67 km/h (41 mph) are possible in showers. The prevailing winds will be east-northeast.

The major concern about the winds is the impact on the seas. They will cause the seas to become very hazardous, with heights reaching 4 metres (13 ft), occasionally reaching 5 metres (17 ft) late Tuesday and staying at those heights until Friday, when they will start to subside.

These conditions, especially the seas, will not be dissimilar to what would obtain during the passage of a tropical storm through the area. However, no such system will be around.

The brunt of this windy weather will be felt mainly over open waters on the windward side of the islands, windward coastlines and elevated places.

The gale-force or storm-force wind gusts and associated strong winds will be as a result of a very steep pressure gradient across the area. Recall that winds blow due to pressure differences or pressure gradients, and the greater the gradients the stronger the winds and vice versa.

The last episode of similarly strong winds and rough seas was a recent as last week.

Follow us for all you need to know about this windy weather and all things weather and climate. We can be followed on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube.





The Fourth Longest Sub-Twenty Cold Spell for Antigua and Barbuda

23 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Last night’s cold weather makes the current sub-twenty °C (sub 70 °F) cold spell the fourth longest on record at the Airport and most of the rest of Antigua and Barbuda. It tied with February and December of 1973.

With a mean minimum temperature of 18.6 °C (65.5 °F), it is also the second coldest sub-twenty cold spell for the country, on record, lasting more than three consecutive nights. The mean minimum temperature for the past four nights ranged between 11 and 22 °C (71.6 °F) with the vast majority of places experiencing sub-twenty temperatures.

jan2017coldspelltemps

The last time the Airport had a temperature below 18 C was in 2000 – 16 years ago.

We are also looking at the coldest four-night period for January since 1980 – over 35 years ago, and since 2000 for all other months, at least, at the Airport.

Of the eight times we have seen this spell lasting more than three days, it has gone for four days twice and five days thrice, based on data for the Airport.

The record five-day sub-twenty cold spell is shared by March 1997, January 1984 and March 1972. The coldest one is March 1972 with a mean minimum temperature of 18.5 °C (65.3 °F).

So far for January, the mean minimum temperature at the Airport is now 21.9 °C (71.4 °F) – below normal. The mean daily temperature is well below normal with a value of 24.6 °C (76.3 °F).

There is now about a 50/50 chance the record will be tied tonight, as conditions could favour sub-twenty temperatures once again. If it were to happen, this cold spell would likely become the longest as the chances of sub-twenty temperatures are high for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Usual January temperatures are expected after Wednesday.

The statements above are truest for the Airport and surrounding areas; however, from a qualitative assessment, it is applicable to the rest of the country.

Follow us for all you need to know about this cold spell and all things weather and climate. We can be followed on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube.





A Hat-trick of Sub-Twenty Temperatures for most of Antigua and Barbuda

22 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Last night’s cold weather makes it a hat-trick of sub-twenty temperatures for most of Antigua and Barbuda. This is a fairly rare feat for the country. It has only happened seven other times during January, based on historical data for the Airport. The last time it happened in January was back in 1996 – 20 years ago. The last time it happened for any month was in March 2000.jan2017temperatureWhereas the last hat-trick of sub-twenty temperatures occurred last in January 1996, the coolest such period last took place in 1992. It is also the coolest such period, for all months, last occurred in March 2000. This and the rest of what is said here is an update on the previous blog.

The mean minimum temperature for the past three nights, at the Airport, was 18.5 °C (65.3 °F). This is the eighth coldest for three or more days in a row with sub-twenty temperatures at the Airport. Further, it is the 12 coldest for any three-day sub-twenty spell (overlapping and otherwise).

When we consider such a three-peat of sub-twenty temperatures for all months dating back to 1971, it has only happened 27 previous times.

So far for January, the mean minimum temperature at the Airport of 22.0 °C (72 °F) is below normal. However, up to three days ago, it was bordering on above normal – meaning we were having relatively warm nights for this time of the year. The mean daily temperature is well below normal with a value of 24.7 °C (76.5 °F).

As cold as it has been, it certainly has NOT nearly been cold enough to freeze water. Thus, that picture being circulated suggesting that the cold weather caused a small body of water to freeze in Free Town is a HOAX. For this to happen, we would need to have sub-zero temperatures persisting for days, which will NEVER happen.

There have only being five occasions when sub-twenty degree nights have occurred for more than three consecutive nights. Tonight is likely to be the sixth time this has happened. So far, today has been coldest of the past three days.

After tonight, the weather will warmup to usual temperatures for this time of the year. Then the cold weather will more likely than not return on Wednesday and continue on Thursday. Thereafter, the usual temperatures for this time of the year is expected to prevail for the rest of the month.

Although we are unable to say definitively how cold the country or specific areas have been due scarcity of historical temperature data, it is likely the coldest since 1996. This is based on fact that temperatures across a small homogeneous area like Antigua and Barbuda are highly correlated. And since it is the coldest for the Airport since 1992, it should be likewise for the rest of the islands.

From a quantitative standpoint, the statements above are truest for the Airport and surrounding areas; however, from a qualitative assessment, it is applicable to the rest of the country.

Follow us for all you need to know about this mini-cold spell we are experiencing. We can be followed on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube for education and information on all things weather and climate.





How Cold was Antigua and Barbuda Last Night?

20 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

By Caribbean standards, the last two nights were very cold for Antigua and Barbuda. One of the coldest spots on the islands was Free Town, which had a minimum temperature of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F) night before last and 11.6 °C (52.9 °F) last night.

picture2jan212017picturejan202017The 11.6 °C  is now the lowest temperature ever measured by the Met Office. It eclipsed the previous short-lived record of 13.9 °C. However, it is unlikely to be the lowest temperature ever experienced in Free Town or by the country. The lowest ever measured is not the same as the lowest on record or in history.

Unfortunately, apart from the Airport, there were NO reliable temperature sensors elsewhere across the country until a few years ago. There exists very little historical data for Free Town, as the station was only installed last January. The same is true for most of the other stations listed above. Thus, regrettably, I am unable to say definitively just how cold it was in Free Town and most of the other locations.

The only site for which historical data exist is the Airport. The minimum temperature measured at the Airport last night was 18.4 °C (65.1 °F); this is well above the record of 16.1 °C (61.0 °F), measured back in December 1974 and January 1976.

Making some reasonable assumptions and using the Airport’s temperature from last night as a “barometer” for the rest of the country, last night was the coldest January night since 1996 and the 12th coldest dating back to, at least, 1971.

Last night, the minimum temperature range for Antigua and Barbuda was 11.0 to 21.0 °C (52 to 69.8 °F) . The previous night it was 13.0 to 22.0 °C (55.4 to 72 °F). It is possible that a few areas had temperatures slightly below or above this range.

The cold weather last night was due to the time of the year, light winds, mostly clear skies and low moisture levels. Last night was colder than Thursday night mainly because moisture levels were lower. These conditions will continue for the next 24 hours; hence, tonight is expected to be similarly cold. Thereafter, the winds will increase and so will the temperature.

With the few cold nights, some have advanced the notion that we are having a colder than usual January. However, this is not borne out by the data at the Airport, thus far. The mean minimum temperature up to two days ago, at the Airport, for the month was 22.6 °C (72.7 °F), 0.2 °C above the average of 22.4 °C  (72.3 °F).

The cold weather was also experienced across most of the rest of the northeast Caribbean for the second night also. Le Raizet, Guadeloupe had a minimum of 17.6 °C (63.7 °F) night before last and 16.8 °C (62.2 °F) last night, meanwhile Clayton J. Lloyd International Airport in Anguilla had 19.4 °C (66.9 °F) and 20.2 °C (68.4 °F) respectively.

Will it be colder tonight, with some places having sub 10 °C (sub 50 °F)? Follow us via our social media platform:  twitter,  facebook,  instagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube and stay informed. We would also be happy to hear from you regarding how cold you felt and your experience with the weather generally.








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