Dale C. S. Destin |
What is Antigua’s record with respect to tropical cyclones in July? While tropical cyclones are unlikely to affected Antigua during the month of July, it is not unheard of. For the period 1851 to 2012, Antigua has been affected by six tropical storms, including one hurricane (AntiguanStorms). The last tropical cyclone to have affected Antigua in July was Hurricane Bertha in 1996. The system produced 39 mph sustained winds with gusts near 60 mph. Total rainfall from it, measured at the airport was 49.1 mm. Based on the active multi-decadal period that we are in, which started around 1995, the probability of a storm or hurricane affecting Antigua is 5% (one every 20 years) as compared to the (1981 – 2010) normal of 3% (one every 33.3 years). Broadly speaking, we a not due another storm in July until sometime in the period 2016 – 2029. Meanwhile, a major hurricane has never affected the country during July.
Two tropical storms formed during the month of June in the North Atlantic Basin. Based on a 30-year (1981 – 2010) average, a tropical storm forms in June in the basin about once every other year.