Antiguan Storms During July

15 07 2013

Dale C. S. Destin |

What is Antigua’s record with respect to tropical cyclones in July? While tropical cyclones are unlikely to affected Antigua during the month of July, it is not unheard of. For the period 1851 to 2012, Antigua has been affected by six tropical storms, including one hurricane (AntiguanStorms). The last tropical cyclone to have affected Antigua in July was Hurricane Bertha in 1996. The system produced 39 mph sustained winds with gusts near 60 mph.  Total rainfall from it, measured at the airport was 49.1 mm. Based on the active multi-decadal period that we are in, which started around 1995, the probability of a storm or hurricane affecting Antigua is 5% (one every 20 years) as compared to the (1981 – 2010) normal of 3% (one every 33.3 years). Broadly speaking, we a not due another storm in July until sometime in the period 2016 – 2029. Meanwhile, a major hurricane has never affected the country during July.

Two tropical storms formed during the month of June in the North Atlantic Basin. Based on a 30-year (1981 – 2010) average, a tropical storm forms in June in the basin about once every other year.

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7 responses

15 07 2013
Terrence Nunes

under the historical stats of storms for Antigua: since the eye of Hurricane Luis passed over the north of Antigua, i would think that it should be considered a direct hit. In Hodges Bay, i went outside for the calm of the eye 1995.

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15 07 2013
anumetservice

Thanks for your comment. I can’t gainsay your experience and perhaps, once corroborated, your info can still be used to determine the best track (for definitions of best track – http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml) of Luis. However, this is the first time I have heard of someone in Antigua experiencing a calm during the passage of Luis. Do you know of others who have had a similar experience, that is, experienced a calm during Luis. Most persons gave the experience of having 36 – 48 hours of wind and rain this hurricane. The determination of strike was determined by a computer program (developed by us) based on the best tracks of the systems as assessed by the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC). From data gathered, NHC has the centre passing over Barbuda (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995luis.html | http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/luis1995/luis.gif) 17.5N 61.7W; perhaps it passed a bit further south and a part of the eye skirted the north coast of Antigua. If you are able to get a few persons to corroborate this, I would be happy to adjust our record and make a submission to NHC in an effort to adjust the official best track.

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17 07 2013
T.N..

Hi Dale, here are a few comments about the eye of Luis in north Antigua 1995:

I live in Hodges Bay and the eye of hurricane Louis 1995 passed right over us – I even went outside to check damage – Madeleine Minors

*Si Parris*

4:26pm Jul 16

I was near seatons, next to betty’s hope.

when the eye hit, we went outside to have a look around and let our various animals relieve themselves, and for at least 15 minutes or so, possibly more, it was almost dead calm.

I remember it being a shock when the wind came back, it was so sudden and powerful. one minute it was eerily quiet with no breeze, the next the wind was so forceful that walking into it was a challenge. we got inside as quickly as we could and in no time at all lus was back in full force.

Denise Stamers-Doherty Yes – calm for just over an hour! Enough time to nail a few missing shingles to the roof then it hit us with a vengeance from the opposite direction!

Eli Fuller The eye wall passed over north of Antigua and eye over codrington, Barbuda. People there started doing roof repair during the eye and had to run for cover as the squalls came in from the other side.

Terrence Nunes i do remember going out during the calm eye of Luis in 1995 (Hodges Bay)…i can’t recall how long it lasted, but not long enuf!….i went into the yard and hauled stuff that looked dangerous if airborne to the other side of the house in prep for the changing winds, which we could hear coming with a bloodcurdling roar. When it arrived it was immediate and intense.

Alan Scholl I remember it was calmer though not completely calm in Lower Fort Road. The wind was dancing from different directions as if not sure, However, when the real wind restarted, it was a reminder that we were in the middle of a dangerous storm. It was those winds that did most of our roof damage!!!

Vicky Godier the eye wall for the second half was so severe…that’s when so much damage was done..the eye itself, about 20 mins but so much to do in that time

On Mon, Jul 15, 2013 at 9:36 PM, Antigua & Barbuda Met Service Climate Secti

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19 07 2013
anumetservice

Hi T. N..:

Thanks for the feedback; it really means a lot to hear from you (all). With respect to H. Luis and where its eye passed; I hear your experience; however, from speaking to persons at the Met Office and examining the data, I am persuaded to accept the NHC Best Track, which has the eye passing north of Antigua – passing over Barbuda. Take a look at this satellite image, which shows the eye moving over Barbuda (). Is it possible that you may be referring to another system?

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20 07 2013
Terrence Nunes

Hi Dale,
yes i am talking about Hurricane Luis in 1995…and we did experience the calm of the eye, enuf to go outside for at least half an hour….there was no image downloaded in your reply., so i couldn’t see the eye over Barbuda.
thanks,
terrence

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20 07 2013
anumetservice

Hi Terrence:
Here is the image again. If it does not show up, copy and paste it into your browser; if that does not work, I will send it to you via email with your permission. Eye of Luis over Barbuda

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20 07 2013
Terrence Nunes

Thanks Dale,
if the coordinates given below are correct for 5th Sept and the size of the eye was 46 miles in diameter at the time, then part of the eye would have had to cross over the northern part of Antigua.
terrence

1) Sept 5 at 12GMT= 17.5 – 61.7
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199512.asp

2) On September 5, Hurricane Luis weakened slightly, with winds decreasing to 135 mph (215 km/h), before tracking directly over Barbuda. The eyewall of the storm brushed Antigua, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin and Anguilla. Sustained winds on these islands were recorded up to 80 mph (130 km/h) with gusts up to 155 mph (250 km/h).[2] The eye of Luis was estimated to be 46 mi (74 km) in diameter at this time.[2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_history_of_Hurricane_Luis

3) distance Antigua to Barbuda:
http://www.distancefromto.net/between/Antigua+and+Barbuda/Barbuda

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