A Slow Start to October’s Rainfall for Antigua

20 10 2014

Dale C. S. Destin |

Rainfall continues to be a very scarce commodity in Antigua and Barbuda. Like most of the rest of the months for the past year, the rainfall for October has been quite discouraging, thus far. The first half of October has seen a significant rainfall deficit across much of Antigua according to preliminary statistics at the Antigua and Barbuda Met Service Climate Section.

Figures up to October 16 show there has been 36.0 mm of rain at the Met Office located at the V. C. Bird International Airport. This is only 50% of the October average of 71.8 mm, just about the amount that should have fallen by this point.

Rainfall_OctoberThis makes this first half of October the 16th driest at the Airport based on available records dating back to 1967. Three of the last four first half of October has seen worse rainfall deficits. However, the overall trend is positive although not significant.

Many persons were hoping that Hurricane Gonzalo would have put a dent in the drought; however, this was just not to be. The system produced only 1-5 inches across Antigua and 4-6 inches across Barbuda; however the higher totals were isolated and away from the most of the islands catchments.

The low rainfall figures appear to be due largely to sinking air associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in our part of the world for much of the first 16 days of October.

Of course, while these figures are interesting, they don’t tell us where the month will end up overall. A few days of wet weather, which looks unlikely at the moment, could drastically alter the statistics. So we’ll have to wait for the full-month figures before making any judgements. September had a much worse start and was able to limp into the near normal range in the end. It should be noted the rainfall for the second half of October is trending downward, although not significantly.

The outlook for the month called for near normal rainfall; thus we shall see what happens at the end of the month.

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