A Break in the Warm Surge for the Western Caribbean

30 04 2015

Dale C. S. Destin |

A cold front is set to dowse the western Caribbean and the Bahamas with heavy showers over the next several days.

2 AM SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS FOR THU APR 30 2015

                               2 AM SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS FOR THU APR 30 2015                               CREDIT NOAA

10:45 AM SATELLITE PICTURE

10:45 AM SATELLITE PICTURE

These showers will be very heavy at times and are expected to will break the warm, dry spell for that part of the region; however, the rest of the area will continue to see scorching weather.

The high pressure ridge, which is the main cause of the parched weather across the region, will block the progress of the front causing it to linger for much longer than normal across the Western Caribbean.  Precipitation from this system could continue well into next weekend, with few breaks.

RAINFALL FORECAST FOR APR 30 TO MAY 7, 2015

ONE WEEK RAINFALL FORECAST: APR 30 TO MAY 6, 2015

Possible rainfall totals over the next seven days across the Bahamas and Cuba are 100-200 mm (4-8 in). This could cause like threatening flash floods and mudslides in some areas. Much lower totals are possible across the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and Hispaniola.

Notwithstanding the potential for flooding, this will be much welcome rainfall as many places across the Bahamas and Cuba are experiencing rainfall deficits. And like the rest of the Caribbean, El Nino is likely to cause significant rainfall deficits for upcoming months.

We will be following this weather as it unfolds.

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