Struggling TS Danny

19 08 2015

Dale C. S. Destin |

Recent image of TS Danny

Recent image of TS Danny

Recent images of Tropical Storm (TS) Danny were rather unimpressive in terms of organization (good news for the Caribbean). The system appears to be struggling as dry Saharan air is getting sucked into it. However, strengthening is forecast by the official U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast.

At 11 a.m. this morning, Danny was assessed to have sustained winds of 50 mph about 1400 east of Grenada, in the Windward Islands, and 1435 east-northeast of Antigua, in the Leeward Islands. It was moving west at 12 mph.

Official forecast track

Official forecast track

Danny's track

The models appear to be showing a high degree of certainty with respect to the eventual path of Danny. Almost all the models, I have surveyed, have the system passing over or north of the northeast Caribbean.  This means that Antigua and the rest of the northeast Caribbean could be in the direct line of fire from Danny come Monday.

Danny's intensity guidanceContrastingly, the models are showing considerable uncertainty with the forecast strength of Danny. The official forecast is for it to become a hurricane on Friday. However, the models are split down the middle on the eventual strength of the cyclone with an even chance of it remaining a storm or becoming a hurricane. Becoming a hurricane may become the news worst case scenario.

The models are, however, unanimous on Danny not becoming a Category 2 hurricane, unlike previous forecasts (good news). It could still be of similar strength to Gonzalo, of last year, when it reaches us. There is enough uncertainty to suggest that it may even be a weaker cyclone upon arrival.

The more reliable European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to only give Danny a less than 5 percent chance of becoming a hurricane. Further, it gives it a low chance of impacting the islands as a TS. The ECMWF continues to be a source of relatively good news for us.

ECMWF forecast

ECMWF forecast

A hurricane watch will likely come into effect for portions of the northern Eastern Caribbean on Friday followed by a warning Saturday/Sunday. Start or get ready to execute your hurricane plan!

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