April to September 2016 Climate Outlooks for Antigua

1 04 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

The latest climate outlooks are now available for Antigua. Unhappily, the news remains bleak. Below normal rainfall and above normal temperature are expected/likely for the upcoming six months – April-September 2016.

Drought

Antigua remains in drought, which has been ongoing for a record 33 months, based on record dating back to 1928.

Currently, a moderate drought or worse is evolving over the periods – January to June 2016, November 2015 to July 2016 and October 2015 to September 2016. All three periods are likely to see below normal rainfall. Drought warnings remain in place and will likely continue through the third quarter of the year.

https://anumetservice.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/jan-junrainfall2.png

The best rainfall forecast for Jan-Jun is around 271.8 mm (10.7 in); however, there is a 70% chance of it ranging between 152.7-443.6 mm  (6.0 to 17.5 in)

It is expected that El Nino will transition to a neutral state around the middle of the year and possibly to La Nina in the last third. La Nina, unlike El Nino, generally encourages rainfall across our area mainly during the wet season. Thus, there is light at the end of the tunnel but, at the moment, it’s a bit distant.

Precipitation and Temperature

Over the upcoming three months – April to June, near normal rainfall could ease the drought; however, an end to it is not anticipated.

Meanwhile, July to September is expected to see below normal rainfall. Thus, even if the drought eases during April to June, the following three months will see it reintensifying.

In the short-term, there are hopes of this dry season (January-June) being wetter than last year’s; however, it is likely to be drier than usual when compared to 1981-2010 average.

All forecast timescales (April, April-June, July-September, April-September) are likely/expected to have warmer than normal temperatures.

See the following links for the outlooks: April 2016, April-June 2016, July-September 2016, April-September 2016, Drought.

The next set of outlooks will be available by May 3, 2016.

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