Potential Hurricane Scare Early Next Week

30 08 2016

Dale C.S. Destin |

A weather disturbance coming off West Africa will likely cause a scare to residents of the northeast Caribbean early next week. Two of the more reliable weather models are forecasting this disturbance to become tropical storm or hurricane later this week and track in the direction of the islands.

Tropical Disturbance Moving Off the West Coast of Africa - Aug 29, 2016

Tropical Disturbance Moving Off the West Coast of Africa – Aug 29, 2016

The preliminary forecast track has it moving on a westerly path, in line with the Leeward Islands, which includes Antigua and Barbuda. However, just before reaching the islands, it’s forecast to turn right or north away from the islands, which should spare us its wrath.

ECMWF IFS

ECMWF Integrated Forecast System Showing at least an 80% Chance of a Tropical Cyclone Near the Northeast Caribbean Between Sep 4 and 6

Twenty-one years ago from September 5, 2016, Antigua and Barbuda experienced one of the most powerful hurricanes in its history – Category 4 Hurricane Luis. It brought death and major destruction to the islands. It left in its wake three dead and around US$350 million dollars in damage. It is easily our costliest hurricane in history.

The system that could cause us some stress is not being forecast to be a Luis, God forbid! However, its potential path and timing are reminiscent of Luis. It could be nearest us around September 5, just that this time, it should turn away sooner than Luis did and spare us this time.

The hurricane season runs until November 30. The forecast calls for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Thus far, there have been seven named storms and three hurricanes, the last one being Gaston. The peak of the hurricane season is around September 10; however, for us, it’s around August 20 and September 3. Become hurricane strong by being prepared!

Follow us via our social media platform and stay updated on the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. We are available on twitter, facebook, wordpress, instagram, tumblr, and google+. Follow us also for all things weather and climate.

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3 responses

30 08 2016
Camille

Hope it stays away!!

Sent from my iPhone

>

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31 08 2016
wordsworth king

What happen if the upper level stratospheric high ampify northEast of leeward island

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1 09 2016
Dale C. S. Destin - Antigua Met Service

Sorry, I am not aware of such a system.

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