Potentially Record Low October Rainfall for Antigua

29 10 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

After a very wet September – the wettest since 1995 and the wettest of any month since October 2012, October 2016 is turning out to be a near record dry October across much of Antigua.

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Thus far, the rainfall for Antigua and the V. C. Bird International Airport (VCBIA) are 20.6 mm (0.81 in) and 14.3 mm (0.56 in) respectively. These currently rank as driest and third driest respectively on record dating back to 1928.

Interestingly, the anemic rainfall for the month seems largely due to Hurricanes Matthew and Nicole and Invest 99 Disturbance. Matthew brought us some rain toward the end of September. However, once it passed through the Eastern Caribbean it served as a giant sponge in sucking up all of the moisture in the area and only sharing it with those areas it made unwelcome visits on.

Nicole and to a lesser extent Invest 99 did similarly. Since then, wind shear and high pressure systems have made it difficult to rain across our area.

It is not over yet; we could still end up with respectable rainfall for October. In the past, up to 100 mm (4 in) has fallen in the last two days of the month.

La Nina, which is good for rainfall at this time of the year for our region seems on the verge of developing.

Our experimental monthly rainfall forecast, issued for October, indicated that the month was likely to be wetter than normal; this is very unlikely. However, recent weather forecasts from various weather models are optimistic about rainfall for much of next week, some of which are likely for the last day of the October.

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