Drought Eased A Bit For Antigua

2 03 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Near normal rainfall for January has eased the drought across Antigua from serious to moderate levels. The island-average rainfall for January was 62.5 mm (2.46 in), 91% of the usual total.

The three-month period – November to January, upon which the assessment of the intensity of the drought is based, had 211.6 mm (8.33 in). It is the second driest such period since 2000 and the 13th driest on record dating back to 1928.

Based on the last set of rainfall outlooks, the news is not good for rainfall. Below to near normal rainfall is expected for the period March to May. Thus, there is every reason to believe that the droughts will worsen or remain the same. There is only a slight chance of them ending over the above mentioned period.

Recall that the current drought started in October 2017 with the intensity at serious levels. On average, serious meteorological droughts last for close to a year, but not continuously at serious intensity.

While we can only speak definitively to meteorological droughts, there is little doubt that we are also experiencing agricultural, hydrological and perhaps socioeconomical droughts. These are likely to become more noticeable in the incoming months; however, the full impact will continue to be masked by the presence of desalination plants.

Potworks Dam Feb 13, 2018, Courtesy Karen Corbin - Humane Society

Potworks Dam Feb 13, 2018, Courtesy Karen Corbin – Humane Society

Potworks Dam, the country’s largest catchment with a capacity of around a billion gallons of water, continues to show signs of drying up. Around the middle of February, the water level had fallen to about a quarter or less. It could be totally dry in couple months.

Keep following us for more on this developing story and things weather and climate.


February to July 2018 Climate Outlooks for Antigua and Barbuda

8 02 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Antigua and Barbuda is back in a meteorological drought again. The latest round of climate outlooks suggest that it is unlikely to worsen and could even end in a few months. However, with us entering the heart of the dry season, the prospects of real relief are not good. Beyond the next few months, it is very unclear as to how the rainfall will perform. Meanwhile, temperatures will vary over the upcoming six months.

Rainfall and drought

At least, a meteorological (Met) drought has returned to Antigua and Barbuda as of October 2017. The rainfall totals for our two wettest months – October and November, were below and well below normal respectively. Combined, it is the driest October-November period since 1983 – 34 year ago or in a generation.


Looking forward – the Met drought is likely to remain the same or perhaps come to an end in the next three months or so. Rainfall totals for December and January were near normal and the outlooks for February-April is for above to near normal rainfall.

Although the Met drought may not get any worse, we could still slip into a hydrological drought, if we are not already in one. Catchments are on the decline, as is normal for the dry season, and will unlikely be recharged by the rainfall of the upcoming three months.

Beyond April, rainfall performance is quite uncertain – the signals are all over the place. Hopefully, in a month’s time things will become relatively clear.

The cold phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – La Nina is evident although an episode cannot yet be declared. La Nina is weak and expected to come to an end around April; hence, having very little impact on rainfall across our area.

If you are in our part of the world – the Caribbean, a moderate or strong La Nina is almost always welcome, particularly in the summer when it has a usual positive impact on rainfall. The opposite – El Nino, has a negative impact. Outside the wet season – July to December, ENSO has little or no effect on our rainfall.


Temperatures were generally near normal for the October-December (OND) period. However, the mean minimum temperature was above normal – the second highest since 2002, based on preliminary data.

The warmer than normal mean minimum temperature for OND was due mainly November and December having above normal nighttime low temperatures. This was reflected in the mean maximum temperature, where November and December also experienced warmer than normal daytime high temperatures.

Looking down the road – there is equal chance of the mean and maximum temperatures for the next three months – February to April, being below, near or above normal. However, the minimum temperature is likely to be above to near normal.

For the period May-July, the mean temperature is expected to be above to near normal. There is equal chance of the maximum and minimum being below, near or above normal.

See the following links for the full outlooks: CariCOF Newsletter – summary and outlooks for the region; precipitation outlooks and temperature outlooks.

Drought Again For Antigua

27 01 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

None_to_Serious_DroughtAntigua is back in drought again. There are several types of drought and as of three months ending December 2017, rainfall figures indicate that Antigua has slipped into, at least, a meteorological drought.

The drought started October 2017, when less than 40% of the normal total rainfall fell for the month. It was the second driest October since 2000 and the 13th driest on record dating back to 1928. Normally, October is the wettest month of the year – averaging 161.0 mm (6.34 in); however, this year, only 61.2 mm (2.41 in) fell.

November did not fare any better with respect to rainfall, actually, it was worse. November only got around 32% of its normal rainfall. It was the driest November since 1997 – two decades ago.

Normally, November is the second wettest month of the year, averaging (5.97 in) – only (1.95 in) fell last November. Instead of being the second wettest, it was the second driest month of 2017 and the seventh driest November on record dating back to 1928.

December had near normal rainfall – far from enough to have much of a positive effect on the drought. By the end of the three-month period ending December – the rainfall deficit for the said interval was around 49% or (8.00 in). It is the sixth driest October-December period on record. At this deficit, the meteorological drought is deemed to be at serious levels.


There is no firm end in sight for the current drought – the chance of it ending over the upcoming three months is moderate, at best. It is more likely to remain the same or get worse.

On average, serious meteorological droughts last around 11 months. The chance of a serious drought ending in a hurry i.e. in less than six months is less than 20%.

Already there are signs of catchment drying up. Potworks Dam, the country’s largest catchment, by far, is well below half. In the past, such a drought would be more impactful socioeconomically; however, with the advent of at least two major desalination plants in the past three years, much of the impacts are being masked.

Potworks Dam Jan 16, 2018, Courtesy Karen Corbin

Potworks Dam Jan 16, 2018, Courtesy Karen Corbin – Humane Society

The last meteorological drought – the worse ever on record, came to an end September 2016. The meteorological drought also degenerated into agricultural, hydrological, socioeconomical and ecological droughts, which were quite costly to the economy of Antigua and Barbuda.

Keep following us for more on this developing story and all things weather and climate.



The Wettest September for Antigua in Over Two Decades

31 10 2017

Dale C. S. Destin|

September 2017 was the wettest for Antigua in over two decades. The month yielded 270.3 mm (10.64 in). This is almost doubled the monthly of 144.0 mm (5.67 in). The last time September was wetter was in 1995, when 373.1 mm (14.69 in) of rain fell.

September 2017 now ranks sixth wettest of all Septembers on record, dating back to 1928. Only 5 other Septembers have seen more rainfall.

SeptemberRainfallTotals_RankedSeptember 2017 is also the wettest month for Antigua in nearly five years. No month has been wetter since October 2012.

The probability of such a high rainfall total for September is 8.6%. This means that this total occurs once in every 11 to 12 years, on average.

The vast majority – over 75% of the rain was due to Hurricanes Irma, Jose and Maria. Maria was the single greatest rain maker with over 30% of the rainfall total for the month.

Interestingly, the last time September was wetter, we had two hurricanes – Luis and Marilyn of 1995. This time around we had three hurricanes.

September is the third wettest month on average behind October and November.

The rainfall total for the year, thus far, is running on the high side of the near normal range, notwithstanding the well above normal rainfall for September.

The forecast for October and the rest of the year is for near to above normal rainfall. Meanwhile, it is likely (55% chance) that the year (2017) will end with above normal rainfall – 1329.0 mm (52.3 in) with a 70 confidence of it being in the range of 1022.3 to 1690.6 mm (40.2 to 66.6 in). This would be the highest total since 2011.

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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Early Forecast

7 04 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Good news! The early forecasts just issued for the upcoming 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (AHS) indicate a below normal season is most likely. This is forecast to be most evident in the number of hurricanes that forms (see graphic below). It could be as quiet as the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Nevertheless, the usual complete preparations are still very much required.

Ensemble forecast

The ensemble (mean) forecast, based on predictions from Klotzbach of Colorado State University, Saunders and Lea of Tropical Storm Risk.com (TSR) and AccuWeather.com, is for 11 named storms, 4 becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes.


A better indicator of the activity for the season is the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index which is a measurement of the strength and duration of each tropical cyclone. Summing together the ACE of each cyclone, provides a more complete picture of how active the season is likely to be outside of just the number of storms.

This year, the ensemble forecast calls for an ACE index of 71. If this forecast pans out, the 2016 season would be around 30% less active than normal.

It must be noted though that there is very low skill in forecasting the AHS (June to November) in April. However, this is the best available forecast for the season, from this vantage point, and can be used as a guide for what is possible. A more skilful forecast will be available around June 1.

El Nino

 The development of an El Nino is the main climate factor that is forecasts to cause the hurricane season to be quieter than normal. El Nino is virtually synonymous with inactive AHSs, as it causes unfavourable conditions for tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes). The main one being the creation of strong winds aloft that inhibits or rips tropical cyclones apart.

However, regardless of the above probabilities and forecasts, this is not a licence to do anything differently for this hurricane season. The same comprehensive preparations are required to deal successfully with any eventuality. It only takes one tropical cyclone to set you back for years. Recall – Gonzalo struck us in a quiet year – 2014.

New and improved products

As is the case annually, there are new and improved products that will be on show. The most significant of which will be the issuing of watches, warnings and advisories for potential tropical cyclones.  A potential tropical cyclone is being defined as a disturbance that has the potential to produce tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.

This new product is expected to be a game-changer as it will eliminate surprise storms and hurricanes and increase the lead time for preparations for rapidly developing disturbances approaching land. If such a product were in place for Gonzalo of 2014, Antigua would have likely fared much better.

Click here for other new and improved products.

2016 hurricane season summary

The 2016 AHS was active – the first active (above normal) season since 2012 and the most active since 2010, based on the ACE index. It produced 15 named storms. Of the 15, 7 became hurricanes and 4 reached major hurricane status – at least Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The strongest tropical cyclone for the season was Major Hurricane (MH) Matthew with peak winds of 160 mph and minimum pressure of 934 millibars.

Hurricane Matthew caused the most devastation. In total, up to 600 deaths have been attributed to the storm, including over 500 in Haiti, making it the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan in 2005.

The 2016 season is the first year since 2008 no tropical cyclone passed within 121 miles of Antigua. It was likely the least stressful AHS for the island in, at least, eight years.

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A Severely Dry February for Antigua

22 03 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

February 2017 was a severely dry month for Antigua. It is the fourth driest February on record, dating back to, at least, 1928. Only one other February has been drier since 1983 – that of 2013.


On average, such an extremely low rainfall only occurs once in around every 33 years for February. In other words, there is only a 3% chance of such little rainfall taking place for the month.

The island-average for the February was just 14.0 mm (0.55 in). This makes it the driest and first below normal rainfall month since October 2016.

One month of dryness does not say anything about the rainfall for the upcoming months. However, with the probability of an El Nino rising, this dryness may be a sign of unwelcome things to come.

Recall the El Nino reduces rainfall activity across our area, mainly during the wet season, while the opposite – La Nina has reverse effect. It is still early days as to whether El Nino will develop but not too early for us to start to put contingency plans in place.

On average, February is our second driest month on, with an island-average of 55.9 mm (2.20 in).

Based on rain gauge measurement and satellite estimates, Barbuda fared slightly better with a total in the range of 12.7 to 38.0 mm (0.5-1.5 in).

Thus far, March is on track for, at least, near normal rainfall.

Follow us for all you need to know about our rainfall and all things weather and climate. We can also be followed on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube.


A Hat-trick of Sub-Twenty Temperatures for most of Antigua and Barbuda

22 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Last night’s cold weather makes it a hat-trick of sub-twenty temperatures for most of Antigua and Barbuda. This is a fairly rare feat for the country. It has only happened seven other times during January, based on historical data for the Airport. The last time it happened in January was back in 1996 – 20 years ago. The last time it happened for any month was in March 2000.jan2017temperatureWhereas the last hat-trick of sub-twenty temperatures occurred last in January 1996, the coolest such period last took place in 1992. It is also the coolest such period, for all months, last occurred in March 2000. This and the rest of what is said here is an update on the previous blog.

The mean minimum temperature for the past three nights, at the Airport, was 18.5 °C (65.3 °F). This is the eighth coldest for three or more days in a row with sub-twenty temperatures at the Airport. Further, it is the 12 coldest for any three-day sub-twenty spell (overlapping and otherwise).

When we consider such a three-peat of sub-twenty temperatures for all months dating back to 1971, it has only happened 27 previous times.

So far for January, the mean minimum temperature at the Airport of 22.0 °C (72 °F) is below normal. However, up to three days ago, it was bordering on above normal – meaning we were having relatively warm nights for this time of the year. The mean daily temperature is well below normal with a value of 24.7 °C (76.5 °F).

As cold as it has been, it certainly has NOT nearly been cold enough to freeze water. Thus, that picture being circulated suggesting that the cold weather caused a small body of water to freeze in Free Town is a HOAX. For this to happen, we would need to have sub-zero temperatures persisting for days, which will NEVER happen.

There have only being five occasions when sub-twenty degree nights have occurred for more than three consecutive nights. Tonight is likely to be the sixth time this has happened. So far, today has been coldest of the past three days.

After tonight, the weather will warmup to usual temperatures for this time of the year. Then the cold weather will more likely than not return on Wednesday and continue on Thursday. Thereafter, the usual temperatures for this time of the year is expected to prevail for the rest of the month.

Although we are unable to say definitively how cold the country or specific areas have been due scarcity of historical temperature data, it is likely the coldest since 1996. This is based on fact that temperatures across a small homogeneous area like Antigua and Barbuda are highly correlated. And since it is the coldest for the Airport since 1992, it should be likewise for the rest of the islands.

From a quantitative standpoint, the statements above are truest for the Airport and surrounding areas; however, from a qualitative assessment, it is applicable to the rest of the country.

Follow us for all you need to know about this mini-cold spell we are experiencing. We can be followed on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube for education and information on all things weather and climate.


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