Dale C. S. Destin |
After encouraging rainfall for August, September has been quite disappointing, thus far. The first half of September has been severely dry across much of Antigua according to preliminary statistics at the Antigua and Barbuda Met Service.
Figures up to September 15 show there has been 16.3 mm of rain at the Met Office located at the V. C. Bird International Airport. This is only 12.4% of the September average of 131.6 mm. We would expect about 57% or 74.6 mm of the month’s rainfall to have fallen by this point.
This makes this first half of September the sixth driest at the Airport based on available records dating back to 1960. Apart from the first half of September of 2012 which yielded just 2.3 mm, no other such first half has been drier since 1990.
The low rainfall figures appear to be due mainly to the pressure across the North Atlantic being higher than normal or a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. This translated into a persistently stable and relatively dry atmosphere, and hence minimal rainfall.
While these figures are interesting, they don’t tell us where the month will end up overall. A few days of wet weather, which we are hoping for, could drastically alter the statistics. So we’ll have to wait for the full-month figures before making any judgements.
While there is no dramatic rainfall expected, several weather models are indicating healthy probabilities for showers over the next several days, particularly Sunday-Monday when the next tropical waves is expected in the area. However, models also are forecasting the NAO to remain positive. Thus, the total for the second half of the month could be similar to that of the first half.
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