The Atlantic Hurricane Season Consensus Forecast – Aug 14, 2013

14 08 2013

| Dale C. S. Destin

The general consensus among tropical cyclone experts continues to be for an above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2013. The consensus forecast calls for 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. A normal season averages of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (See table 1).  Much of the science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions. For this season, the experts are citing a warmer than normal Tropical North Atlantic as the main reason for an above normal season prediction.

Hurricane Season Outlook

What does this mean for Antigua and Barbuda?

 Although there have been great advancements in the science of tropical cyclone (depression, tropical storm and hurricane), the science has not yet reached the stage where accurate predictions can be made of how many cyclones will form in a given year. Also, the science cannot accurately predict when and where these systems will move or make landfall months in advance. The details of the large-scale weather patterns that direct the path of these cyclones cannot be predicted more than a few days into the future. However, for the current active era (1995 – present), there is around a 32% chance or 3 in 10 chances of one or more hurricanes affecting Antigua (directly or indirectly) over the period August – October; this is 4% above the long term chance (1981 – 2010).

The 2013 Hurricane Season

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, thus far, have produced four (4) named storms. The strongest tropical cyclone for the season has been Tropical Storm Andrea with peak winds of 65 mph and minimum pressure of 992 mb. There has been no hurricane, thus far. Relative to Antigua and Barbuda, Chantal, during it passage through the Eastern Caribbean, spawned a destructive water spout, which impacted Camp Blizzard, Antigua. The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30 each year; however, tropical cyclones can and have occurred outside the season. The peak of the hurricane season is mid August to late October while the peak of the hurricane season for Antigua is mid August to late September (graph 1).

It Only Takes One

Regardless of the numbers, we should always approach the hurricane season in the same manner each year: be aware and be prepared. The prevention of the loss of life and property from tropical cyclones is a responsibility that should be shared by all. As a reminder, recall our lesson from Hurricane George of 1998: it only takes one hurricane to make it a bad season. Accordingly, the Meteorological Service will play its usual role in alerting the public of any tropical cyclone that may form and threaten Antigua and Barbuda, the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. We endeavour to provide weather and climate information for the protect life, property, livelihood and the enhancement of the economy – be prepared!

AnuStorms

Graph 1: Antiguan Tropical Cyclones – distribution of tropical cyclones within 120 statute miles of Antiguan (1851 – 2012)

For more information see the links below or email me at dale_destin@yahoo.com. You are also welcome to follow us via twitter facebook youtube and blog .

PDF

References

Accuweather.com, State College, Atlantic Hurricane Season: Three US Landfalls Predicted [online]
<http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-forecast-2013/12116274>
[Accessed 3 June, 2013]

Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 [online].
<http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/aug2013/aug2013.pdf>
[Accessed 12 August, 2013]

Florida State University, Raleigh, FSU COAP Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast [online]. Available from:
<http://coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes>
[Accessed 3 June, 2013]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal [online]. Available from: <http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html>
[Accessed 12 Aug, 2013]

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, 2013 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook [online]. Available from: <http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.html>%5BAccessed 28 May, 2013]

Tropical Storm Risk, London, August Forecast Update for Atlantic and U.S. Hurricane Activity in 2013 [online]. Available from: <http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastAug2013.pdf>
[Accessed 12 Aug, 2013]

United Kingdom Met Office, Exeter, Seasonal Forecasting of Storms [online]. Available from:
< http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/forecasting-method&gt;
[Accessed 3 June, 2013]





THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST – 2013

3 06 2013

| By Dale C. S. Destin

The Forecast

The general consensus among tropical cyclone experts is for an above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2013. The consensus forecast calls for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. A normal season averages of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (See table 1). The science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions. For this season, the experts are citing a warmer than normal Tropical North Atlantic as the main reason for an above normal season prediction.

AtlanticHurricaneSeasonForecasts2013What does this mean for Antigua and Barbuda?

Although there have been great advancements in the science of tropical cyclone (depression, tropical storm and hurricane), the science has not yet reached the stage where accurate predictions can be made of how many cyclones will form in a given year. Also, the science cannot accurately predict when and where these systems will move or make landfall months in advance. The details of the large-scale weather patterns that direct the path of these cyclones cannot be predicted more than a few days into the future. However, for the current active era (1995 – present), there is around a 39% chance or 4 in 10 chances of one or more hurricanes affecting Antigua (directly or indirectly) this season; this is around 10% above the long term chance.

The 2012 Hurricane Season

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season produced nineteen (19) named storms. Of the nineteen (19) storms, ten (10) became hurricanes and one (1) strengthened to achieve major hurricane status – category three (3) or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The strongest tropical cyclone for the season, in terms of pressure was Hurricane Sandy with peak winds of 110 mph and minimum pressure of 940 mb; however, category 3, Major Hurricane Michael had the highest sustained winds of 115 mph and minimum pressure of 964 mb. Relative to Antigua and Barbuda, Isaac and Rafael brushed Antigua and Barbuda as tropical storms.

A number of records were or nearly broken during the 2012 hurricane season. The season had a hectic start and by June 23 Debby formed and become the earliest 4th named storm on record. Prior to the official start of the hurricane season, June 1, there were two preseason storms – Alberto and Chris – the second time on record two storms form in May in a given year, May 1887 was the only other time. It was also the first time since 1908 two named storms preceded the hurricane season and the third time on record. The most intense hurricane, in terms of lowest central pressure, was Hurricane Sandy; it is also considered the largest known Atlantic hurricane by gale diameter on record. Hurricane Nadine was the fifth longest-lived tropical cyclone on record. In addition, August 2012 was tied with August 2004, September 2002, and September 2010 for most number of named storms in a particular month, at eight.

It Only Takes One

Regardless of the numbers, we should always approach the hurricane season in the same manner each year: be aware and be prepared. The prevention of the loss of life and property from tropical cyclones is a responsibility that should be shared by all. As a reminder, recall our lesson from Hurricane George of 1998: it only takes one hurricane to make it a bad season. Accordingly, the Meteorological Service will play its usual role in alerting the public of any tropical cyclone that may form and threaten Antigua and Barbuda, the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. We endeavour to provide weather and climate information for the protect life, property, livelihood and the enhancement of the economy. Although the hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30 each year, tropical cyclones can and have occurred outside the season – be prepared!

AnuStorms

PDF Format

References

Accuweather.com, State College, Atlantic Hurricane Season: Three US Landfalls Predicted [online].
Available from: <http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-forecast-2013/12116274>
[Accessed 3 June, 2013]

Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Extended Range of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 [online]. Available from: <http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/june2013/jun2013.pdf> [Accessed 3 June, 2013]

Florida State University, Raleigh, FSU COAP Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast [online]. Available from:
<http://coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes> [Accessed 3 June, 2013]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, NOAA Predicts Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season [online]. Available from: <http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130523_hurricaneoutlook_atlantic.html> [Accessed 28 May, 2013]

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, 2013 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook [online]. Available from: <http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.html>%5BAccessed 28 May, 2013]

Tropical Storm Risk, London, Pre-Season Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2013 [online]. Available from: <http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLPreSeason2013.pdf>[Accessed 28 May, 2013]

United Kingdom Met Office, Exeter, Seasonal Forecasting of Storms [online]. Available from:
< http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/forecasting-method > [Accessed 3 June, 2013]








%d bloggers like this: