Updated Hurricane Season Forecast: Near to Above Normal Season is Now Likely

17 07 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Good news and bad news: Our July updated forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is now available and it indicates that the hurricane season will likely be near to above normal. The prediction is for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 99, 12 named storms, 5 becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes.

Jul2018HurricaneSeasonOutlook

The good news is that there is a 37 percent chance of there being a near normal season. The bad news is that there is also a 37 percent chance of there being an above normal/active season; hence, the near to above normal forecast for the season.

Recall that during a near normal season, there is a 33% chance of a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane) affecting, i.e. passing within 120 miles of Antigua and Barbuda. By comparison, during an above normal season, the chance soars to 75%.

With to hurricanes, the chance of us being affected during a near normal season – 18 percent, more than triples – 59 percent, for an above normal/active season. Further, we have never had a major hurricane during a near normal season. Clearly, an active season is least prefered.

Chance of Anu Being Affected By TS

These new numbers represent a marginal increase above those of the previous forecast. Previously, the forecast called for an ACE of 93, 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. If the season turns out to be near normal, it would be due mainly to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures, across the tropical North Atlantic. If it turns out to be active, it would be mainly due to the absence or late development of El Nino.

Recall that the ACE is the overall predictor of a hurricane season, it is a measure that represent the total number of storms, their intensities and durations.

A typical season has an ACE index of 106, 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

If this forecast pans out, 2018 would be the least active since 2015. Notwithstanding, a season with activity second only to 2017, since 2005, cannot be ruled out.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the latest consensus is for an ACE of 89, 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Thus, our forecast is calling for slightly higher activity; however, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare well each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year.

The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and will continue until November 30.

We will be updating this forecast by August 10.

If you found this article informative, I would be very grateful if you would help it spread by emailing it to a friend, or sharing it on Twitter or Facebook.

Follow us for all you need to know about the upcoming hurricane season and all things weather and climate. Follow us on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube. Thank you!

Advertisements




Updated Hurricane Season Forecast: Near Normal Season is Now Most Likely

12 06 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Good news: Our June updated forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season is now available and it indicates that the hurricane season will most likely be near normal. The prediction is for an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 93, 11 named storms, 5 becoming hurricanes and 2 becoming major hurricanes.

Jun2018HurrucaneSeasonForecast

This forecast is relatively good news for us because, during a near normal season, there is a 33% chance of a named storm (tropical storm or hurricane) affecting, i.e. passing within 120 miles of, Antigua and Barbuda. By comparison, during an active season, the chance soars to 75%. Further, we have never had a major hurricane during a near normal season.

Chance of Anu Being Affected By TS

These new numbers represent notable decrease below those of the previous forecast. Previously, the forecast called for an ACE of 119, 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Current and projected cooler than normal sea surface temperatures, across the tropical North Atlantic, are mainly responsible for the downward trend in this year’s forecast hurricane season activity.

Recall that the ACE is the overall predictor of a hurricane season, it is a measure that is based on the total number of storms, their intensities and durations.

A typical season has an ACE index of 106, 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/h or 111 miles per hour (e.g., Category 3 or higher), based on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

If this forecast pans out, 2018 would be the least active since 2015. Notwithstanding, a season with activity second only to 2017, since 2005, cannot be ruled out.

According to other forecasts surveyed, the latest consensus is for an ACE of 96, 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Thus, our forecast is calling for similar activity; however, regardless of the forecast, you should always prepare well each season, as it only takes one hurricane to ruin your year.

The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and will continue until November 30.

We will be updating this forecast by July 10.

If you found this article informative, I would be very grateful if you would help it spread by emailing it to a friend, or sharing it on Twitter or Facebook.

Follow us for all you need to know about the upcoming hurricane season and all things weather and climate. Follow us on twitterfacebookinstagramtumblrflickrgoogle+, and youtube. Thank you!





The Most Active Atlantic Hurricane Season in Four Years Likely

4 06 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

After a hat-trick of quiet Atlantic hurricane seasons, the latest round of forecasts is pointing to the most active season since 2012. However, notwithstanding the projected increase in activity over recent years, the forecast is for the 2016 hurricane season to be near normal.

Ensemble forecast

Our ensemble (mean) forecast calls for 14 named storms with 7 becoming hurricanes and 4 reaching major hurricane status. This represents an increase over the previous forecast for the season of one named storm and one hurricane.

MayJuneHurricaneSeasonForecast

In the tropical cyclone community, the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is the indicator used to determine the activity of a hurricane season. The ACE index is a measurement of the strength and duration of a named storm. Summing together the ACE of each named storm, provides a more comprehensive picture of the activity of the season, aside from just the number of storms.

This year, our ensemble forecast calls for an ACE index of 109, which is near normal. If this forecast pans out, the 2016 season would be around 200%, 63% and 73% more active than 2013, 2014 and 2015 respectively.

The ensemble (mean) forecast is based on predictions from Klotzbach of Colorado State University, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Saunders and Lea of Tropical Storm Risk.com (TSR), the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office, the Hurricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) Project of Coastal Carolina University and the Institute for Meteorology (INSMET) of Cuba.

Uncertainty

It must be noted though that the skill in forecasting the hurricane season (June to November) in May/June is moderate. However, it is the best available on earth, and it continues to improve.

Apart from the inherent limits to our skill in forecasting the season, this year, there is the huge uncertainty of the eventual strength of La Nina (the coolness of the tropical Pacific Ocean). A strong La Nina could result in a more active season than is forecast, with the converse being true.

Probability of Antigua and Barbuda being hit

According to Klotzbach, the likely best similar years to this hurricane season are 1973, 1978, 1983, 1992 and 2003. Of these years, we were only hit by Tropical Storm Christine of 1973. Thus, based ONLY on similar years, the probability of Antigua being hit this year by one or more named storms is around 18%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes is 0%.

In general, the probability of Antigua being hit by one or more named storms annually appears to vary according to the phase of the Atlantic. During the quiet phase of 1962 to 1994, the probability of one or more named storms was around 26%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes was around 14%. Meanwhile, for the active phase of 1995 to present, which may have come to an end, the probability of one or more named storms increased to around 55%, while the probability of one or more hurricanes is around 35%.

Overall, based on the climatological period of 1981-2010, the probability of being hit by one or more named storms is around 49% (every 2 years on average), while the probability of one or more hurricanes is around 31% (every 3 years on average). Barbuda has similar numbers.

Become hurricane strong

Notwithstanding the forecast, it only takes one hurricane to change your life and community, so the same comprehensive preparations are required every year. Become hurricane strong by taking actions today to become hurricane resilient. This includes:

  • Determining your risk from tropical cyclones;
  • Developing an evacuation plan;
  • Securing an insurance check-up;
  • Assembling disaster supplies;
  • Strengthening your home;
  • Identifying trusted sources of information for a hurricane event and
  • Having your written hurricane plan.

Recall – an ounce of prevention is better than pound of cure!

We will publish an undated ensemble forecast by early August, just before the traditional peak of the hurricane season. This forecast is generally the most skilful; it will have much reduced uncertainty.

2016 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

Follow us via our social media platform and stay updated on the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. We are available on twitter, facebook, wordpress, instagram, tumblr, and google+. Follow us also for all things weather and climate.





The Atlantic Hurricane Season Consensus Forecast – Aug 14, 2013

14 08 2013

| Dale C. S. Destin

The general consensus among tropical cyclone experts continues to be for an above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2013. The consensus forecast calls for 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. A normal season averages of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (See table 1).  Much of the science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions. For this season, the experts are citing a warmer than normal Tropical North Atlantic as the main reason for an above normal season prediction.

Hurricane Season Outlook

What does this mean for Antigua and Barbuda?

 Although there have been great advancements in the science of tropical cyclone (depression, tropical storm and hurricane), the science has not yet reached the stage where accurate predictions can be made of how many cyclones will form in a given year. Also, the science cannot accurately predict when and where these systems will move or make landfall months in advance. The details of the large-scale weather patterns that direct the path of these cyclones cannot be predicted more than a few days into the future. However, for the current active era (1995 – present), there is around a 32% chance or 3 in 10 chances of one or more hurricanes affecting Antigua (directly or indirectly) over the period August – October; this is 4% above the long term chance (1981 – 2010).

The 2013 Hurricane Season

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season, thus far, have produced four (4) named storms. The strongest tropical cyclone for the season has been Tropical Storm Andrea with peak winds of 65 mph and minimum pressure of 992 mb. There has been no hurricane, thus far. Relative to Antigua and Barbuda, Chantal, during it passage through the Eastern Caribbean, spawned a destructive water spout, which impacted Camp Blizzard, Antigua. The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30 each year; however, tropical cyclones can and have occurred outside the season. The peak of the hurricane season is mid August to late October while the peak of the hurricane season for Antigua is mid August to late September (graph 1).

It Only Takes One

Regardless of the numbers, we should always approach the hurricane season in the same manner each year: be aware and be prepared. The prevention of the loss of life and property from tropical cyclones is a responsibility that should be shared by all. As a reminder, recall our lesson from Hurricane George of 1998: it only takes one hurricane to make it a bad season. Accordingly, the Meteorological Service will play its usual role in alerting the public of any tropical cyclone that may form and threaten Antigua and Barbuda, the Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands. We endeavour to provide weather and climate information for the protect life, property, livelihood and the enhancement of the economy – be prepared!

AnuStorms

Graph 1: Antiguan Tropical Cyclones – distribution of tropical cyclones within 120 statute miles of Antiguan (1851 – 2012)

For more information see the links below or email me at dale_destin@yahoo.com. You are also welcome to follow us via twitter facebook youtube and blog .

PDF

References

Accuweather.com, State College, Atlantic Hurricane Season: Three US Landfalls Predicted [online]
<http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/atlantic-hurricane-forecast-2013/12116274>
[Accessed 3 June, 2013]

Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 [online].
<http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/aug2013/aug2013.pdf>
[Accessed 12 August, 2013]

Florida State University, Raleigh, FSU COAP Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast [online]. Available from:
<http://coaps.fsu.edu/hurricanes>
[Accessed 3 June, 2013]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal [online]. Available from: <http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_atlantichurricaneupdate.html>
[Accessed 12 Aug, 2013]

North Carolina State University, Raleigh, 2013 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outlook [online]. Available from: <http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.html>%5BAccessed 28 May, 2013]

Tropical Storm Risk, London, August Forecast Update for Atlantic and U.S. Hurricane Activity in 2013 [online]. Available from: <http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastAug2013.pdf>
[Accessed 12 Aug, 2013]

United Kingdom Met Office, Exeter, Seasonal Forecasting of Storms [online]. Available from:
< http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/forecasting-method&gt;
[Accessed 3 June, 2013]








%d bloggers like this: