May to October 2016 Climate Outlooks for Antigua

3 05 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

The May to October 2016 climate outlooks are now available for Antigua. In the short-term, the news remains bleak regarding rainfall. However, in the long-term, there is relieving news, as above normal rainfall is likely for the period August-October. Meanwhile, uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected for the upcoming six months.

Drought

Notwithstanding a wetter than normal week in April, droughts (meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socioeconomic) continue across Antigua. We are now entering the 35th month of mostly moderate or worse rainfall deficits.

Currently, a moderate drought or worse is evolving over the periods – February to July 2016, October 2015 to August 2016 and November 2015 to October 2016. All three periods are likely to have below normal rainfall. Drought warnings remain in place and will likely continue into the third quarter of the year.

Feb-July2016_Rainfall

The current El Nino looks to be on its last gasp. It will transition to a neutral state around the middle of the year and possibly to La Nina during our wet season. La Nina, unlike El Nino, generally encourages rainfall across our area, mainly during the wet season. Although still distant, we appear to be drawing nearer to the light at the end of the tunnel i.e. the end of the droughts.

Precipitation and Temperature

Over the coming three months – May to July, below to near normal rainfall will result in the droughts continuing, at best, slight, and at worse, re-intensifying to serious levels.

Meanwhile, August to October will likely see above normal rainfall. Thus, some droughts may come to an end during the latter half of the upcoming rainy season. However, there remain large uncertainties as to how wet the rainy season will eventually be.

So far, 2016 has been wetter that last year; however, it’s running over 50 mm (2 in) below average. The dry season (January-June) is likely to be drier than usual, and at best, the year will have near normal rainfall.

The heat will likely be on for much of the rest of the year. Warmer than normal temperatures are probable for MayMay-July and August-October.

See the following links for the full outlooks; rainfall: MayMay-July, August-OctoberMay-October 2016 and April Drought Outlook.

The next set of outlooks will be available by June 3, 2016.





April to September 2016 Climate Outlooks for Antigua

1 04 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

The latest climate outlooks are now available for Antigua. Unhappily, the news remains bleak. Below normal rainfall and above normal temperature are expected/likely for the upcoming six months – April-September 2016.

Drought

Antigua remains in drought, which has been ongoing for a record 33 months, based on record dating back to 1928.

Currently, a moderate drought or worse is evolving over the periods – January to June 2016, November 2015 to July 2016 and October 2015 to September 2016. All three periods are likely to see below normal rainfall. Drought warnings remain in place and will likely continue through the third quarter of the year.

https://anumetservice.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/jan-junrainfall2.png

The best rainfall forecast for Jan-Jun is around 271.8 mm (10.7 in); however, there is a 70% chance of it ranging between 152.7-443.6 mm  (6.0 to 17.5 in)

It is expected that El Nino will transition to a neutral state around the middle of the year and possibly to La Nina in the last third. La Nina, unlike El Nino, generally encourages rainfall across our area mainly during the wet season. Thus, there is light at the end of the tunnel but, at the moment, it’s a bit distant.

Precipitation and Temperature

Over the upcoming three months – April to June, near normal rainfall could ease the drought; however, an end to it is not anticipated.

Meanwhile, July to September is expected to see below normal rainfall. Thus, even if the drought eases during April to June, the following three months will see it reintensifying.

In the short-term, there are hopes of this dry season (January-June) being wetter than last year’s; however, it is likely to be drier than usual when compared to 1981-2010 average.

All forecast timescales (April, April-June, July-September, April-September) are likely/expected to have warmer than normal temperatures.

See the following links for the outlooks: April 2016, April-June 2016, July-September 2016, April-September 2016, Drought.

The next set of outlooks will be available by May 3, 2016.








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