Dale C. S. Destin |
Significant tightening of the pressure gradient across the area is expected to cause strong winds with frequent gusts to storm force strength or gale force. The seas will respond to the strong winds and become very rough.
The winds – they will generally be in excess of 18 mph (16 kt) from late Saturday night to Monday afternoon. The winds will peak as high as 30 mph (26 kt) with frequent gusts between 38 and 46 mph (33 and 38 kt) Sunday morning to Monday morning.
The seas – they will respond to the winds and become very rough, rising to as high as 3.9 metres (13 ft) on Sunday night. Waves will rise above six feet by Saturday morning and remain above this height through midweek. Waves of 2.7 to 3.9 metres (9 to 13 ft) will prevail from Saturday night to Wednesday. Waves are expected to fall off rapidly after Wednesday.
The cause – as indicated above, it is the substantial tightening or steepening of the pressure gradient. This is in response to a very strong surface high pressure system moving from west to east across the Atlantic from the United States. This will NOT be due to any tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storms or hurricane).
Fundamentally, wind blow as a result of pressure differential (pressure gradient). The greater the pressure between point A and point B (pressure gradient) the stronger the winds.
Where – the strong winds will mostly take place over open waters, exposed eastern coastal areas and elevated areas of Antigua and Barbuda. The seas will be roughest in the Atlantic coastal waters east of the islands, as the winds will be generally easterly. Similar conditions are expected across most of the rest of the Eastern Caribbean. However, Antigua and Barbuda could get the worst of it.
Precautions – The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services have issued warnings for sea-bather and small craft operators. The former should avoid the beaches, especially those on the Atlantic or eastern side of the islands, and the latter should not venture far from port, at least, until Thursday.
A small craft warning generally means that wind speeds in excess of 16 knots is causing or expected to cause hazardous sea conditions to small craft within 24 hours. Inexperience mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating these conditions.
According to the Beaufort Scale, gale-force winds run from 39 to 54 mph (34 to 47 kt). Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires special expertise and specially equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbour prior to the onset of gale conditions.
The strong winds, especially if frequently gusting to gale force, could also make some outdoor activities very uncomfortable if not hazardous, please be guided accordingly.