Windmageddon To Produce Swellmageddon Across The Caribbean

3 03 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

A gigantic low-pressure system, nicknamed windmageddon due to widespread damage and power outages it caused across the Northeast United States, is about to cause swellmageddon. Swellmageddon because the low-pressure area will cause enormous, dangerous and destructive sea swells that will wreak havoc on the shorelines of Antigua and much of the Caribbean.

High Surfs

Large Breaking Swells (High Surfs)

Large and dangerous battering swells, peaking in excess of 4 m (13 ft), are expected to pommel our shoreline starting Sunday and continuing until Friday. This is expected to be the worse swell event thus far for the winter season.


Such high swells will produce even higher surfs that will result in beach closures as swimming conditions will become extremely dangerous for beachgoers.

Swellmageddon will likely cause major beach erosion; flooding of low lying coastal roads; disruptions to marine recreation and businesses; financial losses and damage to coral reefs.

This major swell event may also cause disruptions to potable water from desalination as turbulent seas could increase the turbidity of the water above safe levels for the desalting plants.

A high surf warning is expected to be issued by the Met Office for Antigua and the rest of the northeast Caribbean. Other Offices are expected to issue warnings for as far west as the Bahamas and extending south to the Windward islands. Swells could exceed 5 m (17 ft) across the Bahamas.

The impact on shorelines will not be the same everywhere. Depending on the depth and the natural shelter of the coastal waters the impact will be different. Shallow north-facing shorelines are expected to see the highest swells and surfs.

In open waters, the swells from swellmageddon will be virtually harmless to small craft operators as they will be long-period waves with gentle gradients.

Windmageddon will not cause any destructive winds across us, far from, but it will cause them to come from some very unusual directions for this part of the world. They are going to becoming from the south, west and north at times over the next several days before return the usual direction of east next weekend.

Keep following us for more on the weathermageddons and for everything weather and climate.


Windy Weather to Cause More Hazardous Seas and Economic Losses

8 01 2018

Dale C. S. Destin |

Hazardous seas being caused by frequently strong winds – gusting to near gale force at times, will continue to keep most mariners in or near port over the upcoming week – causing further significant economic losses for many.

Seas around Antigua and Barbuda have been rough for most of the year, so far, and are set to remain that way or even worsen over the next seven days, at least. As usual, this type of weather is very disruptive to marine activities and have a negative economic impact, particularly on fisherfolk, those alone the fisheries value-chain and those involve in offshore pleasure cruises and adventures.

Small craft warning remains in effect for hazardous seas around Antigua and Barbuda and will likely remain in place for the rest of the week. Hence, small craft operators, especially inexperienced ones, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Warnings are also in effect for beach-goers as high surfs are affecting beaches, producing beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. Beach-goers should avoid the waters, especially those on the northern and eastern side of the islands. These high surfs are likely to subside to more manageable levels by Tuesday.

High surfs can also cause strong rip currents, which can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea, and seawater splashing onto low-lying coastal roads, causing damage. Further, high surfs can also knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties. Breaking waves may also occasionally impact harbours making navigating the harbour channel dangerous.

The wind speed will range between 14 and 22 knots (16 to 25 mph) and at times gusting to near 30 knots (35 mph). The winds will be strongest on Tuesday and Friday and will blow from near east for most of the week.

Wind speed – valid at 6 am, Tue, Jan 9, 2018

Seas will remain hazardous with steep waves ranging between 2 and 3 metres (7 and 10 ft), occasionally reaching near 4 metres (13 ft), mainly in open waters on the eastern or windward side of the islands.

Significant wave height (ft) – valid at 6 am, Tue, Jan 9, 2018

These strong winds not only cause hazardous seas but also cause certain onshore activities to be uncomfortable, if not dangerous. Hence, certain outdoor work will be hampered, if not halted, at times; thus, reducing productivity in other sectors.

The windy conditions and hazardous seas will also be experienced by all the islands of the Eastern Caribbean along with Hispaniola and the Bahamas, particularly the Atlantic coastal waters or the eastern and northern coastal waters.

The strong winds are not due to any storm system but rather because of steep pressure gradients across the area. Recall that winds blow due to pressure differences or pressure gradients, and the greater the gradients the stronger the winds and vice versa.

Also, the strength and position of the ever-present subtropical/Atlantic high-pressure system modulate the steepness of the pressure gradient. The closer and or stronger the subtropical high, the steeper the gradient, the stronger the winds and vice versa.

The subtropical high-pressure system will be stronger than normal for much of the next week; hence, the forecast continuation of strong winds, hazardous seas, disrupted marine activities and economic losses.

Although windy, the weather will be mostly dry with only occasional brief showers likely.

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Dangerous Surfs to Threaten Beachgoers in Antigua and Barbuda Easter Monday

17 04 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

Those heading to the beaches in Antigua and Barbuda should be wary of the threat of strong rip currents Easter Monday through Wednesday.

Seas Forecast Apr 17, 2017

Beaches on the northern and eastern sides of the islands will be at greatest risk for stronger and more frequent rip currents through midweek, due to large swells. Seas are on the rise and will peak on Tuesday with a combination of wind waves and swells nearing 3.0 metres (10 ft) occasionally reaching 3.8 metres (13 ft).

A huge low pressure system near the centre of the North Atlantic is pushing large swells to the region. Meanwhile, the winds in the area are on the increase, which will cause a rise in the wind waves.

Low pressure systems

Rip currents are not new to our shores. They are always present in situations like this and are characterised by water flowing away from the shore. The strength of the current is usually proportional the height of the swells.

Vacationers and residents should take precautions while at the beach. It would be prudent to seek out only beaches under the watch of lifeguards, if possible, and heed all warnings issued. The west facing beasches should be least affected.

Should you ever get caught in a rip current, never attempt to swim directly back to shore as you will be swimming against the current. Instead, swim parallel to the beach to escape the current’s grip before swimming ashore.

Small craft should use caution and heed all advisories, as seas will also be rough.

Similar sea conditions are forecast for most of the rest of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the eastern parts of the Bahamas, the Winward Islands and Barbados. The swells will also eventually reach Trinidad and Tobago and the Guyanas late Tuesday.

It is also likely to be a somewhat wet Easter Monday as the same low pressure system mentioned above is pulling a lot of moisture across the islands. The range of the possible rainfall total is wide – 0 to 12 mm (0 to 0.48 in).

The increasing wind will peak late Easter Monday at around 16 knots (18 mph) over open waters and 13 knots (15 mph) over land. Frequent higher gusts will take place.

Seas will return to near normal levels on Thursday.

Very Hazardous Marine Conditions for Antigua and Barbuda

14 01 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |


High Surf

High Surf

The shoreline Antigua and Barbuda and the rest of the northeast Caribbean are getting hammered by high surfs. Additionally, starting today, seas in open waters will become very unfriendly to small craft operators. As a result, the weather authority in Antigua and Barbuda has issued special marine statements on the high surfs and rough seas.

Surfs are building – they are expected to range 8-12 feet (2.4-3.6 m) between today and Monday, affecting mainly northern and eastern coastlines. These high surfs are being generated by a low pressure system located just northeast of the area, which is pushing very large swells to our shores.

There is a high risk of rip currents, especially over the next 24 hours when the surfs are expected to peak. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins such as jetties and piers.

The winds will become fresh to strongthey will frequently be in excess of 18 mph (16 knots) from today to Wednesday. The winds will peak at around 30 mph (22 knots) with occasional gale-force gusts to the around 39 mph (34 knots) today and Sunday likely.  These winds will primarily take place over open waters, coastal areas on the northern and eastern side of the islands and elevated areas.



The seas will respond to the winds – they will become very rough, rising to as high as 3.6 metres (12 feet) on Saturday night Sunday. Waves will decrease to less than 2.0 metres (6 feet) by Wednesday.


The cause of the strong winds – this is due to a significantly tight of the pressure gradient (horizontal differential of pressure) across, which will tighten a bit more over the next 24 hours. The relatively tight pressure gradient is in response to a strong high pressure system moving from west to east across the Atlantic from the United States. There are NO tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane) in the area.

Surface Chart

Surface Chart for Saturday 8 am, Showing a Tight Pressure a Tight Gradient as Evident by the Closeness of the Isobar (Pressure Lines)

Precautions – Sea-bathers should avoid the waters, mainly on the northern and eastern sides of the islands until Tuesday. Small craft operators should not venture far from port through Monday.

A high surf warning means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions.

A small craft advisory means that wind speeds of 24-38 mph (21 to 33 kt) and or seas of 7 feet (2.1 m) or greater are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

The strong winds, especially if frequently gusting to gale force, could also make some outdoor activities very uncomfortable if not hazardous, please be guided accordingly.

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