Our Inaugural Forecast of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

5 07 2017

Dale C. S. Destin |

We have just released our first inhouse-produced forecast of the Atlantic hurricane season. It calls for an above normal season with 16 named storms, 7 becoming hurricanes and 4 reaching major hurricane status.

The main reasons for the above normal forecast are the warmer than usual tropical North Atlantic and the unlikely development of an El Nino. This season could turn our similar to last year’s and be one of the most active since 2010.

We hope that you find this forecast to be a useful resource in your hurricane season preparations. Please feel free to share you feedback with us as usual.  Click here for the full forecast.

Become hurricane strong!

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The Latest Round of Seasonal Forecasts for Antigua – Mar to Aug 2016

3 03 2016

Dale C. S. Destin |

Our latest round of seasonal forecasts for Antigua is indicating that the current record longest drought will likely continue into the second half of the year. Both the spring and summer rainfall forecasts are calling for below to near normal rainfall.

SeasonalOutlook_Mar-Aug2016.png

The previous round of forecasts had indicated a high chance of the drought easing to slight levels or ending around the middle of the year. However, the latest round of forecasts is backing away from the optimism of significant showers over the period May-July.

Notwithstanding our forecasts for the upcoming seasons, the prospects for drought busting rainfall is still possible. A number of the global models are forecasting above normal rainfall for the mentioned seasons. However, our downscaled forecasts, which we believe have better skill for our region, are predicting drier than normal weather will persist.

Our drought outlook is also in support of the drought continuing beyond the middle of the year. The periods December 2015-May 2016, October 2015 to June 2016 and September 2015 to August 2016 are projected to see moderate to major rainfall deficits.

Temperatures for the upcoming six months are generally expected to be above normal. Hence, this spring and summer are anticipated to be warmer than normal. This could further exacerbate the scarcity of water.

The next round of forecasts, which will cover April to September 2016, will be available by April 3. Hopefully, we will have better news then. All of our outlooks can be found here








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